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Guaranteed - Why Obama's plan will not work

I already discussed economist Paul Krugman's statement that Obama's plan leaves 15,000,000 US citizens lacking cheap medicare. The thing is, I believe Krugman is wrong . Krugman is too optimistic. My analysis is that Obama's plan leaves most Americans uninsured in the final analysis. And here is why :

His plan relies on people voluntarily purchasing medical insurance or signing up for public health programs to receive health care. First is a remit that health insurers must accept all comers, regardless of how well or how sick they are. 2nd is that insurers must cover established conditions.
okay, so here is a question : with a remit like these, why would anybody voluntarily join healthcare insurance *before* they got sick? I mean, health care insurance is expensive, right? So then the healthcare death spiral that I discussed back in September 2007 kicks in. As healthy people opt out of paying for medicare, that means the remaining folk end up paying more, which causes more folk to drop out, which causes health care insurance to become dearer, and then yet more people drop out. The end result is that only sick people end up paying for medicare -- which isn't a usable choice, because the small proportion of sick folk simply cannot pay for current levels of medicare. There just ain't no'there' there.
in brief without a remit that healthy people subsidize the care of sick folk, there's no universal medicare, just a large amount of dead sick folk. When I'm employed the numbers, Obama's plan simply doesn't work -- the health insurance death spiral gets even worse.
The point I've been making all along, is that unless *everybody* is needed to participate either via purchasing private insurance or participating in a public program ( and remember, at least 5,000,000 of the uninsured *CURRENTLY QUALIFY FOR PUBLIC INSURANCE PROGRAMS*, they've just never gotten around to signing up ), we end up with a system where only sick people pay -- and, in the end, with lots of dead folks. Krugman is an optimist. I'm not. I see a whole lot more, if Obama's plan were passed as-is -- which, naturally, it won't be, since as a plan this would have such horrific effects that when the CBO works the numbers the entire Congress would flinch in horror and send it to the shredder.

- http://obama-healthcare-issues.blogspot.com/
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Author: Jan Whitten